能源化工财经与管理

提升能源利用效率是实现经济高质量发展的重要环节，更是推动绿色发展建设的关键支撑。研究选取2009—2023年我国31个省（市区）的面板数据，运用SBM超效率法、Malmquist指数方法、核密度估计、灰色预测模型等方法测算并评价绿色全要素生产率（Green Total Factor Productivity,GTFP）水平，以2016年开展用能权交易的试点地区作为一项准自然实验，利用双重差分模型考察用能权交易政策对绿色发展的影响。研究发现，GTFP在试点地区稳步增长，平均年增速为9.06%，表明政策具有较强激励效应，该结论经一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。从时间维度来看，全国GTFP水平自2016年起显著跃升，呈现政策驱动的拐点特征；从空间维度来看，东部地区GTFP提升幅度为8.40%，显著高于中部（7.60%）和西部（2.20%）地区。灰色预测模型显示，2024—2028年，GTFP全国平均增长率约为4.11%。异质性分析表明，用能权交易政策对东部和西部地区、欠发达地区以及高能源消费强度和高产业合理化水平省份的绿色增长效应更为明显。研究建议，应持续推进用能权交易试点政策，构建绿色发展政策框架，优化资源配置并提高能源利用效率，因地制宜完善区域政策支持，以实现绿色可持续发展目标。

Improving energy efficiency is a crucial link to achieving high-quality economic development and a key support for promoting green development. Selecting panel data from 31 provinces(autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2009 to 2023, this paper measures and evaluates the level of Green Total Factor Productivity(GTFP) by the SBM Super-Efficiency model, Malmquist index method, kernel density estimation, and grey prediction model. Taking the pilot areas implementing the energy use right trading policy in 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment, the difference-in-differences(DID) model is adopted to examine the impact of the policy on green development. The results reveal that GTFP in pilot areas has grown steadily with an average annual growth rate of 9.06%, indicating a strong incentive effect of the policy. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Temporally, the national GTFP level has shown a significant leap starting in 2016, displaying characteristics of a policy-driven turning point. Spatially, the GTFP growth rate in the eastern region was 8.40%, which was significantly higher than that in the central(7.60%) and western(2.20%) regions. The grey prediction model forecasts an average national GTFP growth rate of approximately 4.11% from 2024 to 2028. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the green growth effect of the energy-use rights trading policy is more pronounced in eastern and western regions, less developed areas, and provinces with high energy consumption intensity and high levels of industrial rationalization. This paper recommends continuously advancing the pilot policy of energy-use rights trading, constructing a green development policy framework, optimizing resource allocation, improving energy utilization efficiency, refining regional policy support according to local conditions, and achieving the goals of green and sustainable development.