能源化工财经与管理

海外油气项目评价是一项系统工程，具有多专业交叉、强不确定性、高复杂程度以及长周期等特点，传统确定性评价方法难以有效量化此类项目全生命周期中的多重不确定性因素。针对不同技术环节，综合多学科专业建立海外低勘探程度油气项目非确定性技术经济评价方法体系，阐述无圈闭和有圈闭条件下的资源量预测路径,以及产能和工程投资预测中不确定性的处理方法。提出应强化非确定性评价方法的应用，注重区域数据积累与模型适配，拓展决策分析维度，并将非确定性评价方法深度融入国际化战略，以提升海外油气投资决策的科学性和抗风险能力。

The techno-economic evaluation of overseas oil and gas projects is a systematic engineering endeavor characterized by interdisciplinary integration, high uncertainty, significant complexity, and long cycles. Traditional deterministic evaluation methods struggle to effectively quantify the multiple uncertainty factors throughout the full life cycle of such projects. Targeting different technical stages, an uncertainty-based techno-economic evaluation methodology for overseas frontier oil and gas projects(with low exploration maturity) has been established by integrating multidisciplinary expertise. This paper elaborates on resource volume prediction pathways under both trap-free and trapped geological conditions, as well as methods for addressing uncertainties in forecasting production capacity and engineering investment. It is proposed to strengthen the application of uncertainty-based methods, emphasize regional data accumulation and model adaptation, expand the dimensions of decision analysis, and deeply integrate uncertainty evaluation methods into internationalization strategies. These measures aim to enhance the scientific rigor and risk resilience of overseas oil and gas investment decision-making.